Red Queens and Increasing Returns

I actually thought that all of the movies listed for my assignment would be available on Netflix.  However, I could only find Paycheck and this was the deciding factor for me as to which movie I would watch.  I think that the battle between DVDs and Video On-demand (VOD) is an example of Red Queens and not increasing returns.  Arthur (1996) explained that increasing returns, “cause products that are ahead to get further ahead” (p. 100).  Thornburg (Laureate, 2009a) expanded on the idea of this race in which one product gets further ahead to explain that the product which gets ahead, to explain that one product gets locked-in and drives the other to extinction, even if the winning product is subpar to the now extinct product.  Both DVDs and VOD may be experiencing increasing returns, however, one technology has not yet knocked the other out of the race.  The Redbox website boasts, “Renting more than 1.5 billion discs to date” (Redbox, 2012).  These numbers include rentals of both games and DVDs, showing that Redbox has diversified in its race for number one.  This service upgrade is a definite benefit to the consumer and a leg up for Redbox kiosks as the Blockbuster Kiosk does not offer games at the kiosk, but you may rent them online along with videos.  Meanwhile, there is much competition in the world of VOD itself.  The big players are Amazon, Best Buy, Blockbuster, Hulu, Netflix, Wal-Mart, and Redbox may soon join the race.  Typically these various VOD services require some technology through which the video will stream, such as a Nintendo Wii, a Sony Playstation 3, DVD and Blue-Ray disc players, TiVos, televisions, computers, and smartphones. 

Among all the competitors, the battle seems to be Netflix vs. Blockbuster, since these are the only two who offer videos through the mail, as well as, streaming video.  Netflix has already pulled ahead of its competitor in that they have been able to get Netflix automatically set up on new flat screen televisions.  The company even voiced the possibility that Netflix would be a part of almost all Internet accessible devices (Roth, 2009).  Anderson (2004) mentioned that ‘timing is everything’ and Netflix seems to getting the jump on its competitor.  Thornburg (2008) added that there were advantages to the consumer when dealing with Red Queens as the one who is running twice as fast is upgrading the product quality in efforts to achieve consumer lock-in.  In this case, it is a plus to the consumer to be able to access VOD from any Internet-ready device.

Revisiting McLuhan’s tetrad, VOD would be the emerging technology which enhances watching movies and television programming, obsoletes cable, retrieves the technology of holographic television, and reverses into the function of renting DVDs in order to watch movies.

Tetrad for Video-On-Demand

Video-On-Demand
Enhances Consumers may watch movies and favorite television programs as streaming video on Internet-ready devices.  Service is affordable, typically under $10.00 so far.	Obsoletes Cable Television.  Consumers no longer need to pay exorbitant prices for channels they do not watch or which provide programs which are of little or no interest to viewers.  The technology also obsoletes renting VHS movies and DVDs from a video store.
Retrieves The technology reverses into holographic television.  This technology is projected for the year 2025 and will allow 3D images in movies and television programs to appear to viewers.	Reverses The technology reverses into the function of paying for a membership at the video store and renting videos for viewing pleasure.

References

Anderson, C. (2004). Chris Anderson of Wired on tech’s long tail [Video]. Retrieved from http://www.ted.com/talks/chris_anderson_of_wired_on_tech_s_long_tail.html

Arthur, W. (1996). Increasing returns and the new world of business. Harvard Business Review, 74(4), 100-109.

Elon University/Pew Internet Project. (n.d.). Imagining the Internet: A history and forecast: Forward 150 timeline. Retrieved April 7, 2011, from http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/predictions/forward150years.pdf

Falcone, J. P. (September, 2011). Netflix vs. Blockbuster: What’s the best service for streaming and DVDs? CNET News. Retrieved from http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-20093587-1/netflix-vs-blockbuster-whats-the-best-service-for-streaming-and-dvds/

Fox News Network, LLC. (2012). Netflix vs. Vudu vs. Amazon and More: A consumer guide to streaming video. Retrieved from http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2011/07/28/netflix-vs-vudu-vs-amazon-and-more-consumer-guide-to-streaming-video/

Laureate Education, Inc. (Executive Producer). (2009b). Emerging and future technology: Red Queens. Baltimore, MD: Author.

Redbox. (2012). Facts about Redbox: Media Center. Retrieved from http://www.redbox.com/facts

Roth, D. (September, 2009). Netflix everywhere: Sorry cable, you’re history. Wired Magazine: 17.10. Retrieved from http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/magazine/17-10/ff_netflix

Thornburg, D. (2012). Apple and Google as an example of an evolutionary Red Queen effect in the technology world. Lake Barringon, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration.

Thornburg, D. (2008). Red Queens, butterflies, and strange attractors: Imperfect lenses into emergent technologies. Lake Barrington, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration.

The Disruptive Power of Second Life

Hedberg and Chang (2007) wrote, “Christensen defined a disruptive innovation or technology as one that eventually takes over the existing dominant technology in the market, despite the fact the disruptive technology is both radically different to the leading technology and often initially performs worse than the leading technology according to existing measures of performance” (p. 3).  I see Second Life as this disruptive technology which will eventually displace video games.  At this time, the graphics are not as good as many video games, but I believe the Second Life developers will continue to improve their graphics to the point where it may exceed all expectations. 

Second Life also fits Thornburg’s (Laureate, 2009b) example of a disruptive technology in that it has the same functionality of a video game, but operates more efficiently in that the player is not merely operating a remote device, but becomes immersed in a virtual environment of one’s choosing.  In Second Life, you can realize whatever you can imagine for yourself- a new you, a new career, a family, friends, colleagues and cohorts.

The Forward 150 Timeline (Elon, n.d.) predicts the onset of holographic television and immersive- virtual reality worlds around 2016-2025.  I believe that Second Life will continue its shelf life until the time in which these technologies emerge as these will become the disruptive technologies that will eventually displace Second Life. 

Second Life is used by corporations, educational institutions, and personal users to establish global interaction, social presence, and basically, to build an alternate reality.  Educators could use Second Life as a means of fostering collaboration, connection, and communication between the instructor and students, as well as, a neighborhood of community among classmates.  Businesses could design their islands to enable customers and clients to explore products and services, and to gain more knowledge about the business. 

Possibilities seem to be endless when it comes to establishing an alternate ego or persona in this virtual environment.  The user would need to be careful not to allow this world to consume his/her life.  The user would also need to be mindful not to replace reality with fiction.  Some individuals do this with television or movies.  I am constantly telling my kids, that television is not reality.  The danger is even greater with an alternate reality. 

 

References

Elon University/Pew Internet Project. (n.d.). Imagining the Internet: A history and forecast: Forward 150 timeline. Retrieved April 7, 2011, from http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/predictions/forward150years.pdf

Hedberg, J. G., & Chang, C. –H. (2007). The G-portal digital repository as a potentially disruptive pedagogical innovation. Educational Media International, 44(1), 3-15.

Laureate Education, Inc. (Executive Producer). (2009b). Emerging and future technology: Disruptive technologies. Baltimore, MD: Author.

Rosedale, P. (2008). Philip Rosedale on Second Life [Video].  Retrieved from http://www.ted.com/talks/the_inspiration_of_second_life.html

Rhymes of History Technology

I remember learning to do arithmetic in elementary school in the Caribbean using rods.  These manipulatives were rectangular wooden rods of different lengths and colors and helped us learn how to count in 2s, 5s, 10s, add, subtract, and perform simple mathematical functions.  In a sense this technology was a most basic form of the hand held calculator which we use today to perform even the most complex of functions including graphing, and, “calculating trends and predictions” (Scienceray, 2012).  Thornburg (Laureate, 2009a) listed ‘rhymes of history’ as one of the six driving forces of emerging technologies.  Thornburg (Laureate, 2009a) explained that this force occurs when, “a new technology is a fresh emergence of the impact felt many years before from another technology”.  Dr. Thornburg (Laureate, 2009c) added that the concentration of this force is not on the medium itself, but on its effect.  Rhymes of history force us to examine the emerging technology by asking the question, ‘What does this technology rekindle?’  The hand held calculator is used to find solutions to mathematical problems and this function rekindles that of the abacus which was the Chinese version of the calculator, circa 3000 BC (The Great Idea Finder, 1997-2007).  Today’s technology can obviously perform many more sophisticated functions, but the usefulness rekindles that of the abacus. 

 

I was intrigued by Kelly’s (2008) thoughts on the concepts of embodiment, restructuring, and co-dependency on the web as examples of the rhymes of history.  After much thought, I found that these three trends in the virtual realm rekindle embodiment, restructuring, and co-dependency in the faith-based realm.  The idea of the web being the One makes me think of religion.  Many religions believe in different versions of an omnipresent, omniscient, and omnipotent being.  The web would represent that being to those who consider technology to be their religion.  Religion embodies believers in that every aspect of their lives portal into their religion.  In this sense, believers restructure their lives after joining a religion and in some cases, change the way they eat, live, dress, seek entertainment, and even educate their children.  These believers are linked by their belief system to their religions as a body.  Finally, believers may be considered to be co-dependent on their religious leaders as they render themselves totally transparent in order to meet their needs for spiritual and physical wellness and well-being. 

Vida Martin

References:

 

Kelly, K. (July, 2008). Kevin Kelly on the next 5,000 days on the web. TED Talks: TED Partner Series. Retrieved from http://www.ted.com/talks/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html

Laureate Education, Inc. (Executive Producer). (2009a). Emerging and future technology: Six forces that drive emerging technologies. Baltimore, MD: Author.

Laureate Education, Inc. (Executive Producer). (2009c). Emerging and future technology: Rhymes of history. Baltimore, MD: Author.

Scienceray. (2012). The history and evolution of the calculator. Scienceray. Retrieved from http://scienceray.com/mathematics/the-history-and-evolution-of-the-calculator/

The Great Idea Finder. (1997-2007). ABACUS. Retrieved from http://www.ideafinder.com/history/inventions/abacus.htm

Tetrad

Tetrad of Emerging Technology with Progressions

Data Storage: The Flash Drive

Data Storage: The Flash Drive
Enhances The flash drive allows users to store additional data without incurring the cost of upgrading their computer's hardware.  It is portable and allows users to edit material on any computer device.	Obsoletes The flash drive obsoletes CDs, DVDs, floppy discs, external hard drives, Zip in some instances, and even the computer’s hard drive in the case of the netbook and the latest computers that use cloud technology for storing data.   The flash drive also negates the need for a paper trail.
Retrieves The technology reverses into cloud storage.  Cloud computing has invaded the world of storing data and allows users to work from any device and still have access to one's own files and documents.	Reverses The technology retrieves the art of storing information for the purposes of transferring from one user to another.  Information was written on the walls of caves, stored in the brain and transferred by oral tradition, and later written on papyrus, scrolls, paper, hard drive, and external drives.

One emerging technology with progressions is data storage.  Data storage dates back to recording information on the walls of caves to using the brain for storing data to storing data today in the clouds.  Along the way storing additional data using computer technology has continued to progress from the external hard drive to the floppy discs to CDs to zip to DVDs to flash drives to SD cards to now using tools such as Google drive and DropBox to store data in the clouds.  As I speculate how the technology of storing data may evolve, I consider the possibility of storing data on crystal via what I would term to be a holographic projection (Hudson, 2005).  This idea of storing data on crystals is reminisce of etching data on stones, cave walls, papyrus, and eventually paper.  The idea behind this progression is how to store the greatest amounts of data on the smallest space.  Soon we will be trying to figure out how to automatically download information into the learner’s brain?  Perhaps the answer is in nanotechnology.  Any thoughts?

 

Reference

Hudson, J. (2005). This laser trick’s a quantum leap. WIRED. Retrieved from http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2005/10/69033.

Open Source Technology

Thornburg (2009) succinctly stated, “The constantly changing landscape of educational technology can be thought of as a series of transitions from older tools to newer ones” (p. 1).  These newer tools help us to complete the same tasks which we performed with the older tools, but in a more effective or efficient way, or may allow us to do things that we could not do before.  The newer tools should be used in the environment of teaching and learning to augment or enhance human performance.

One such technology which is shaping the educational landscape is the open source technology.  The idea of open source allows users free access to design and redistribution of software by making the source code available for manipulation as long as these co-developers and co-designers credit the original author of the source code.  Pan and Bonk (2007) defined open source as, “Any computer software program whose source code is free to its licensed users for use, modification, and redistribution” (p. 2).  CoSN K-12 open technologies is an initiative sponsored by corporations such as IBM, Cisco, and Pearson Education with the goal of making K-12 curriculum available to teachers and learners worldwide.  Wiley (2010) described the concept of this technology in education as openness and sharing and proposed that the three were synonymous.  Wiley (2010) suggested open source as a technology would allow us to share our knowledge and expertise as is evident from sights such as Curriki.org which provides a forum for educators to network and share curriculum and lesson plans openly and free of charge.  Open source is paving the way in education.  Open source courseware such as the MIT initiative which offers free classes for various disciplines in efforts to “unlock knowledge and empower minds” (MIT, 2002-2012), and Khan Academy whose website boasts that, “You can learn practically anything for free” (Khan Academy, 2012) allow students, teachers, and parents to access meaningful learning 24/7, free of charge.  Open source course management systems, such as Moodle, and other open source applications have indelibly influenced face to face, hybrid, and distance learning to enable collaboration, social networking, social bookmarking, and the co-creation of knowledge.  The idea of open source technology opens us up to potentially replacing the published textbook by resources that are the product of the effort of multiple authors who have edited, improved, and changed material that is now available to the masses free of charge around the world in a much shorter time period than it took to write, edit, review, and publish the printed text.  The benefits of the open source initiative and its technologies are endless for the learning community worldwide.

Security is a concern in this community of openness which allows anyone to contribute.  There is a fear that hackers may access information or that users could unknowingly download a virus to their computers.  Constant modifications could render the software unreliable and even useless to the learning community, since there is no paid technical support, if there are too many problems, developers may abandon the project leaving users stranded.  Fortunately creative commons licenses, peer reviews, and initiatives such as the open source initiative (OSI) support security, reliability, and validity of open source applications. 

Please view the videos and links below for more information on the idea of sharing knowledge through open source technology.

References

Khan Academy. (2012). KHANACADEMY. Retrieved from http://www.khanacademy.org/

Mayer, R. E. (2009). Multimedia learning (2^nd ed.). Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.

MIT. (2002-2012). MITOPENCOURSEWARE. Retrieved from http://ocw.mit.edu/index.htm

Pan, G., & Bonk, C. J. (November, 2007). The emergence of open-source software in North America. International Review of Research in Open and Distance Learning, 8(3), 1-18.

Video:

Baraniuk, R. (August, 2006). TED: Richard Baraniuk on open-source learning. Retrieved from http://www.ted.com/talks/richard_baraniuk_on_open_source_learning.html

Wiley, D. (March, 2010). TEDxNYED: David Wiley. Retrieved from http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rb0syrgsH6M

Websites

CoSN K-12 Open Technologies: http://www.k12opentech.org/

Moodle: http://moodle.org/

OSI: http://opensource.org/